Baccarat Card Counting Calculator

Calculate true count, edge adjustments, and betting recommendations for baccarat card counting systems.

Formula:True Count = Running Count ÷ Decks Remaining

True Count

0.0

Player Edge

1.24%

Banker Edge

1.06%

Recommended

Banker (default)

Edward Thorp's system for Player bet advantage

Sum of card values seen

Estimated decks left in shoe

$

For EV calculations

Thorp Count (Player) Card Values

A
0
2
0
3
+1
4
+2
5
+1
6
+1
7
0
8
-1
9
-1
T
0

⚠️ Reality Check: Is Baccarat Counting Worth It?

The math is harsh: Even perfect baccarat counting provides about 1/10th the edge of blackjack counting.

Opportunity frequency: +EV situations occur perhaps once in 100,000 shoes with typical rules.

Better alternatives: Your time is better spent learning blackjack counting or poker. The Banker bet at 1.06% house edge is already one of the best bets in the casino.

Baccarat vs Blackjack Counting

FactorBaccaratBlackjack
Max Practical Edge~0.5%~2-3%
+EV Frequency1 in 100,000 shoes~30% of hands
Player DecisionsNone (automatic)Every hand
Hourly EV ($100 bets)~$0-5~$50-100

Key Facts

  • •Baccarat counting provides ~1/10th the edge of blackjack counting
  • •+EV opportunities occur maybe 1 in 100,000 shoes
  • •Maximum practical edge: ~0.5% (vs 2-3% in blackjack)
  • •Thorp count: targets Player bet when high
  • •Griffin count: targets Banker bet optimization
  • •Most experts consider baccarat counting not worthwhile
  • •Better strategy: just play Banker bet consistently

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you count cards in baccarat?

Yes, but it's far less effective than blackjack card counting. Baccarat offers at most a 0.5% edge in extremely rare situations (maybe 1 in 100,000 shoes). The practical profit potential is minimal, making it not worth the effort for most players.

How does baccarat card counting work?

Similar to blackjack, you assign values to cards and keep a running count. High cards (8,9) favor certain outcomes, while low cards (3,4,5,6) favor others. The Thorp system targets Player bets, while Griffin's system works on Banker bets.

Is baccarat card counting profitable?

Barely, if at all. Studies show that even with perfect counting, the advantage opportunities are extremely rare and provide minimal edge. The mathematical advantage is about 1/10th of what you'd get counting blackjack.

Why is baccarat counting less effective than blackjack?

In blackjack, the player makes decisions based on remaining cards. In baccarat, play is automatic - removing player decision-making removes most of the card counting advantage. The drawing rules are fixed regardless of what cards remain.