Blackjack Expected Value Calculator
Calculate your expected profit or loss per hand and per session
EV Calculator
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Basic strategy: -0.5% | Counter: +0.5% to +1.5%
Full table: 60-80 | Heads-up: 150-200
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Quick Answer
Key concepts at a glance
Blackjack EV depends on your edge and bet size. With a 1% edge at $100/hand, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands/hour, that's +$100/hour expected. Basic strategy players have -0.5% edge (EV = -$50/hour at $100/hand). Card counters aim for 0.5-1.5% edge. EV shows long-term expectation - short-term results vary wildly.
Key Facts About EV in Blackjack
Understanding long-term expectation
- EV = Bet Size × Edge/100
- Hourly EV = EV per hand × Hands per hour
- Basic strategy: ~-$50 EV per hour at $100/hand average
- Skilled counter: ~+$100 EV per hour at $100/hand average with 1% edge
- Actual results can deviate significantly from EV in short sessions
- Standard deviation in blackjack is about 1.15 per betting unit
- Need 10,000+ hands for results to approach expected value
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about blackjack EV
What does expected value mean in blackjack?
Expected value (EV) is your average profit or loss per bet over the long run. If you have a 1% edge on a $100 bet, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands, you expect to win $100. EV doesn't guarantee this result - it's a statistical average over many thousands of hands.
What is my EV without card counting?
Playing perfect basic strategy against good rules, you face about 0.5% house edge. Your EV is -0.5% of every dollar wagered. At $100/hand for 100 hands, EV = -$50. This is the "price of entertainment" - you're expected to lose about $50 in that session.
How much can card counters expect to make?
Skilled counters typically achieve 0.5-1.5% edge. At $100 average bet, 100 hands/hour, 1% edge: EV = +$100/hour. However, variance is extreme. You might win $1,000 one session and lose $800 the next. Annual earnings require hundreds of hours and adequate bankroll.
Why do my results not match the expected value?
Short-term variance overwhelms EV. With standard deviation ~1.15 per hand, your results after 100 hands can easily be $1,000 above or below expectation. The more hands you play, the closer your results approach EV. This is why bankroll management and long-term thinking are essential.
How does bet size affect EV?
EV scales linearly with bet size. Double your bet, double your EV (positive or negative). A $200 bettor with -0.5% edge loses twice as fast as a $100 bettor. A counter with 1% edge earns twice as much at $200 but also faces twice the variance.