Video Poker EV Calculator

Calculate your expected value, expected loss, and profit probability for video poker sessions. Compare different games and optimize your play.

Formula:EV = Total Wagered × (Expected Return - 1)

Expected Loss

$14

$3/hour

Profit Probability

48.0%

96.8% bankroll survival

Expected Return

99.54%

House edge: 0.46%

Expected return with perfect play

$

5 coins at $0.25 = $1.25

Average: 400-700

hours
$

Amount you're willing to lose

Session Analysis

2,400
Total Hands
$3,000
Total Wagered
-$14
Expected Loss
±$270
Std Deviation

95% Confidence Range

-$544
Worst Case
+$516
Best Case

95% of sessions will fall within this range (excludes Royal Flush variance)

Video Poker Session Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations

$

Your initial capital

%

Your expected advantage

%

Percentage of bankroll per bet

Total bets to simulate

Quick Answer

Playing 9/6 Jacks or Better at $1.25/hand (max coins) for 4 hours at 600 hands/hour: Expected loss is $13.8 with 99.54% return. A $500 bankroll has ~89% chance of lasting the session.

Key Facts

  • ✓99.54% return means you lose 0.46% of total wagered over time
  • ✓At 600 hands/hour with $1.25 bet, you wager $750/hour
  • ✓Royal Flush jackpot can cause large positive swings
  • ✓High variance means $500 bankroll can swing ±$200 in a session
  • ✓Perfect strategy is required to achieve theoretical return

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I calculate expected value in video poker?▼
Expected Value = (Total Wagered × Expected Return) - Total Wagered. For example, wagering $750 on a 99.54% return machine: EV = ($750 × 0.9954) - $750 = -$3.45 expected loss per hour. This assumes perfect strategy play.
What bankroll do I need for video poker?▼
For a 4-hour session at $1.25/hand and 600 hands/hour, you need $200-$500 minimum. Video poker has high variance due to the Royal Flush, so expect swings of ±$200 even with perfect play. Bigger bankrolls reduce risk of ruin.
Why is max coins important in video poker?▼
The Royal Flush pays 250 coins for 1-4 coins, but 4,000 coins for 5 coins (max bet). That's 800-to-1 vs 250-to-1. This bonus adds about 2% to the expected return. Playing less than max coins raises the house edge from 0.46% to about 2.5%.
How does variance affect video poker sessions?▼
Video poker variance (about 19.5 for Jacks or Better) means large swings are normal. In a 2,400-hand session, you'll hit a Royal Flush about 6% of the time. Without a Royal, expect to lose $50-$100. With a Royal, you'll win $900+. Long-term results require many sessions.