Video Poker Variance Calculator

Calculate variance, standard deviation, and expected outcome ranges for video poker sessions. Understand how volatility affects your bankroll and results.

Formula:σ = √(Variance × Hands) × Bet

Game Variance

19.51

Low variance

Session Std Dev

$270

Expected swing size

Profit Probability

48.0%

Royal Probability

5.82%

Chance of hitting royal

Different games have different variance

$

5 coins max bet

Typical: 400-700

hours

For variance projection

Game Variance Comparison

GameVarianceStd DevRelative Risk
9/6 Jacks or Better19.514.42Low
8/5 Jacks or Better19.224.38Low
7/5 Jacks or Better19.114.37Low
Full Pay Deuces Wild25.835.08Medium
NSUD Deuces Wild25.585.06Medium
10/7 Double Bonus28.265.32High
9/7 Double Bonus28.265.32High
Joker Poker Kings26.215.12Medium

Expected Outcome Range

68% Confidence (1σ)
-$284
+$257
95% Confidence (2σ)
-$555
+$527

Expected loss: $14 • Most sessions fall within 2 std devs

Variance Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations

$

Your initial capital

%

Your expected advantage

%

Percentage of bankroll per bet

Total bets to simulate

2,400
Total Hands
$3,000
Total Wagered
-$14
Expected Loss
48.0%
Profit Chance

Key Facts

  • •Variance = Standard Deviation squared
  • •Jacks or Better variance: ~19.5 (lowest among common games)
  • •Double Bonus variance: ~28 (45% higher than JoB)
  • •Deuces Wild variance: ~26 (medium-high)
  • •Royal Flush jackpot contributes ~2 points to variance
  • •68% of sessions fall within 1 standard deviation

Frequently Asked Questions

What is variance in video poker?

Variance measures how spread out your results will be around the expected value. Higher variance means bigger swings - more big wins but also more losing sessions. Jacks or Better has variance around 19.5, while Double Bonus is around 28.

How does variance affect my bankroll needs?

Higher variance games require larger bankrolls for the same risk of ruin. For example, Double Bonus (variance 28) needs about 45% more bankroll than Jacks or Better (variance 19.5) for equivalent safety.

What does standard deviation tell me?

Standard deviation shows the typical swing size. In a session, about 68% of results fall within 1 std dev of expected, and 95% within 2 std devs. If std dev is $200, most sessions will be within ±$200 of expected loss.